As we discussed in our previous post on Critical Success Factors for Lifecycle Management, to ensure that our LCM planning is not just a sporadic reaction to fleeting opportunities, we need an effective process in place that drives rational and aligned decision making, keeping the broader strategic vision for the portfolio at its core. Alongside the integration of current market insights, a critical component of a successful LCM plan in today’s world is one that aligns with not only today’s market but also with its evolution.
A deep understanding of what drives decision making, where there are unmet needs, opportunities and/or threats to address is the foundation from which strategy should build, and in the context of LCM this is no different from short term brand planning. However, the key differentiating factor for LCM is the need to not just understand the key issues in today’s world, but to anticipate the future market drivers and resistors in order understand what will shape success or failure in the next lifecycle stage.
How best to model the future?
It is essential to understand both the potential impact of new entrants on market dynamics and how stakeholder behaviour/influences will change over time. For example, LCM planning in the last 10 years would only have been successful if the increasing role and influence of payers on treatment patterns and choice had been effectively anticipated. Failing to effectively consider this is can lead to development of lifecycle strategies that are perfectly tailored to a future that looks very similar to today, which in today’s rapidly evolving world has a diminishing probability of success.
One effective approach to modelling the future is to identify good analogues for the market you are likely to face. Be it the launch of a new drug class, or a product patent expiry, analogues can often be drawn from both within and outside our own therapeutic categories. However, two major caveats do exist in this approach:
Provided these caveats are embraced and accounted for, ‘adapted’ analogues are often the best approach to model key future events and can be of major value for LCM planning. The key is to keep these analogues ‘alive’ and to keep adapting them based on new market learnings.
Of course, while this analogue approach can undoubtedly help inform us on the potential impact of a future event, it does not eliminate the uncertainty around whether an event might or might not happen or even the precise implications of the event. However, this level of uncertainty must not be ignored, but rather integrated into LCM plans. Understanding how best to recognize, allow for and deal with this uncertainty is the focus of Align Strategy Co-Founder and Managing Director Neal Hansen’s article published in PM360.
In the meantime, stay tuned for our next installment of ‘Critical Success Factors for Lifecycle Management’ which will focus on how we put strategy at the heart of our LCM planning.
